The Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings, both 6-1, meet Monday night in Minneapolis in a matchup that pits the NFL’s highest-scoring offense against its stingiest defense.
Buffalo’s offense under coordinator Joe Brady is averaging 33.3 points per game, while Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy Minnesota defense has held every opponent this season to 22 points or fewer. Oddsmakers have made the Bills 3.5-point road favorites, with the over/under set at 44.5 points.
Josh Allen and the Bills are 3-0 on the road this season, and the Vikings are 3-0 at home, setting up a clash of unbeaten streaks within the broader win-loss records.
Minnesota’s run defense exposed
Minnesota’s bid for a perfect start ended in Week 8 against the Detroit Lions, a game that revealed a weakness in an otherwise dominant defense: stopping the run. Despite Flores pressuring quarterback Jared Goff on 89.7% of his dropbacks, Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 153 yards at 6.7 yards per carry. Over their last three games, the Vikings have allowed 146.3 rushing yards per game.
That trend could play into Buffalo’s hands. Bills running back James Cook is the league’s reigning rushing champion and one of three backs averaging at least 100 yards per game this season.
Wentz returns under center
Minnesota will have Carson Wentz back at quarterback for coach Kevin O’Connell, with Kyler Murray still dealing with a hamstring issue. Wentz’s best game of the season came in Week 1, when he threw to Justin Jefferson eight times for 92 yards and two touchdowns. Buffalo’s defense ranks 26th in EPA per play and is allowing 254.7 passing yards per game, a matchup that could favor Jefferson again.
Buffalo’s defense had struggled on the road earlier this season, giving up 31 points to Houston, 34 to the Rams and 30 to Las Vegas. But the unit looked sharper last week in a 36-10 win over Baltimore, where it limited a pair of backup quarterbacks.
Allen’s dual-threat factor
Minnesota ranks second in the league with 25 sacks through eight games and leads the NFL in quarterback pressure rate at 73.1%. Under pressure this season, Allen has completed 66.7% of his passes for 8.6 yards per attempt with three touchdowns, four sacks and two interceptions.
Four of the Vikings’ six wins this season came against Tampa Bay, Miami, Indianapolis and New Orleans. Minnesota’s defense has yet to face a quarterback with Allen’s ability to extend plays with his legs and convert near the goal line. Allen ranks first among quarterbacks in rushing EPA and leads all passers with nine rushing touchdowns.
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