New Poll Shows Raman Leading Bass by 11 Points in LA Mayoral Race

A new poll shows Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman leading Mayor Karen Bass by 11 percentage points in the race for mayor, with more than a third of likely voters still undecided six weeks before the November election.

The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey found Raman, who is backed by the Democratic Socialists of America, at 39 percent support and Bass at 28 percent. Another 33 percent of likely voters said they had not chosen between the two candidates. The online poll surveyed 2,150 likely Los Angeles voters from Sept. 15-20 and carries a margin of error of about three percentage points.

The DSA, which has called for defunding the police and abolishing prisons, endorsed Raman’s campaign earlier this month.

Bass called the poll an “outlier poll” that “means very little with 40 days to go.” Raman said the results reflected growing momentum for her campaign.

A Lingering Effect From the Primary

The runoff was shaped in part by reality TV personality Spencer Pratt, who ran in the June primary on a platform criticizing the city’s handling of homelessness, public safety and basic services, as well as the response to the Palisades fire, which destroyed his own home. Pratt led Bass on election night before later ballot counts pushed Raman ahead of him into the second runoff spot.

The new poll found that 63 percent of voters who had backed Pratt in the primary remain undecided in the mayoral runoff. Among those who have picked a candidate, 22 percent now support Bass and 16 percent support Raman.

Poll director Mark DiCamillo described the size of the undecided bloc as “extraordinarily unusual” this late in a race.

Favorability Gap

The poll also found a wide gap in favorability ratings. Just 28 percent of likely voters viewed Bass favorably, compared with 63 percent who viewed her unfavorably. Raman’s numbers were close to even, with 40 percent favorable and 39 percent unfavorable.

Prediction market Kalshi adjusted its odds after the poll’s release, moving its contract on the Los Angeles mayoral race to show Raman at 58 percent and Bass at 42 percent.

Bass and Raman have also publicly clashed over the city’s homelessness crisis, including Raman’s removal as chair of the City Council’s Housing and Homelessness Committee. The November election will decide whether Bass, the incumbent, wins a second term or Raman, backed by several major labor groups and the DSA, becomes the city’s next mayor.