Israel’s National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir is projected to win between seven and ten seats in the 120-member Knesset in the country’s Oct. 27 election, according to current polling. That showing could leave any future government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party dependent on his support, and in position to claim senior ministerial posts.
Ben-Gvir’s party, Otzma Yehudit, has surged as Netanyahu’s bloc runs slightly behind the opposition, led by Yashar party chief and former Israel Defense Forces chief Gadi Eisenkot. Neither side currently has a clear path to the 61 seats needed to form a governing majority.
His rise is part of a pattern seen elsewhere in Europe and the West, where hardline and populist parties have gained ground on mainstream conservative rivals. Fox News Digital pointed to Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s National Rally in France, Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom in the Netherlands, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation in Australia, Matteo Salvini in Italy and Alice Weidel’s AfD in Germany as comparable movements.
What Ben-Gvir Controls
As national security minister, Ben-Gvir oversees the ministry responsible for internal security, which includes the Israel Police, the Israel Prison Service and civilian firearms licensing.
Yishai Fleisher, international spokesman for the Jewish community of Hebron and the No. 12 candidate on the Otzma Yehudit list, described Ben-Gvir’s platform in terms familiar to American audiences. “I always say that Minister Ben-Gvir, if he were in America, he would just be called a Texan,” Fleisher told Fox News Digital. “Meaning law and order, the death penalty for murderers, tough conditions for jihadists in our prisons and gun rights for the average Jewish person to be able to defend themselves in our national state. That’s what Itamar Ben-Gvir stands for.”
Fleisher argued that unchecked immigration had fueled extremism in parts of Europe and said Israelis want to avoid a similar outcome. “There is a jihadist takeover that has come in through immigration, and now the streets of Paris are burning, and the people of Belgium and the U.K. want their countries back,” he said. “In Israel, we don’t want to see Tel Aviv burning.”
A Divisive Record
Former Israeli Ambassador to Washington Danny Ayalon, a former deputy defense minister, offered a sharply different assessment, saying Ben-Gvir’s tenure has damaged Israel’s standing abroad. “Ben-Gvir spoke in a way that turned the entire world against Israel, portraying it as a racist country by making statements that made Israel a pariah state,” Ayalon said.
Ayalon also faulted Ben-Gvir’s record on domestic security. “During his tenure, Israel has become less secure internally because crime is rising. Many young people believed in the last election that he would bring governability and authority to areas such as the Negev and the Galilee, on the outskirts of the country, where there is almost no law,” he said.
Ben-Gvir was first elected to the Knesset in 2021 after studying law and years of political activism. Following the 2022 elections, Netanyahu appointed him national security minister. In 2007, he was convicted of supporting a terrorist organization and inciting racism. His campaign told Fox News Digital the conviction stemmed from displaying a sticker of the late Rabbi Meir Kahane, whose Kach party was outlawed in 1994, and said Ben-Gvir has since said publicly that he has matured and moved on from those earlier positions.
Fleisher credited Ben-Gvir with tripling the number of personal firearms and firearms licenses issued to Israelis over four years, establishing 1,000 rapid-response teams, overhauling the prison system and demolishing 9,000 illegally built homes, particularly in the Negev. In March, the Knesset approved a death-penalty law sponsored by Otzma Yehudit and other lawmakers that Ben-Gvir has strongly championed. “No more hotel-like conditions in our prisons. You’ll know you are being punished for your crime, and these simple policies ultimately deter jihadism,” Fleisher said.
An Uncertain Alliance With Netanyahu
Recent public exchanges have raised questions about whether Ben-Gvir and Netanyahu remain fully aligned. On Oct. 15, Ben-Gvir shared a Hebrew-language media report quoting Netanyahu as saying he would not serve again as national security minister, writing in response: “Dear Prime Minister, only the people will decide. Ben Gvir is strong, Israel is strong!”
Last Wednesday, Likud’s official WhatsApp channel appeared to reverse course, stating: “Ben-Gvir is a senior minister in our government, and he will remain so in the next government — provided that the bloc consisting of the Left and Arab parties does not win.”
Ayalon said Netanyahu could still choose to exclude Ben-Gvir from a future government, even if it meant seeking a coalition with opposition figures such as Eisenkot. “Netanyahu is brilliant. He kept Ben-Gvir because it suited him. If he could, he would get rid of him in a minute. Bibi is capable of changing his mind on a dime,” Ayalon said.
Fleisher framed Ben-Gvir’s appeal differently, arguing his support reflects a broader demand for a firm national identity. “They understand that he represents a full-throated pushback against the jihadist takeover of our land. Ben-Gvir also represents a strong Jewish identity, strong policies and strong laws to ensure that we don’t lose control of our country,” he said.
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