Oddsmakers and bettors are already sizing up NFL Week 7, with early attention on the Patriots-Bears Thursday night matchup, the Giants-Texans game and Packers-Lions, according to betting analysis published by the New York Post.
The analysis comes after a mixed Week 6 for the outlet’s betting picks. Last week’s call on the Texans at plus-3 paid off as the line moved in that direction, with Houston closing at plus-2 before winning outright in London. A pick on the Bills did not fare as well — Buffalo barely beat the Raiders, who ended up covering the 5-point spread.
Patriots vs. Bears
New England is drawing interest as undervalued heading into Thursday night. The analysis notes the Bears’ blowout win over the Falcons didn’t move Chicago’s DVOA rating much, pointing to a weak 6.0 yards per play average this season. New England’s DVOA rating is rated higher, and the analysis suggests that gap won’t hold for long.
Giants vs. Texans
The pick here hinges on an expectation that the Giants turn to quarterback J.J. McCarthy this week, which the analysis argues could move the line closer to 7.5 before kickoff. The Giants struggled badly in Week 6 against the Saints, and Houston is viewed as a legitimately strong team. Still, the prediction leans on McCarthy looking like a genuine starting-caliber player for New York going forward.
Packers vs. Lions
Green Bay is being backed again this week, with the analysis arguing the Packers are better than the betting market currently reflects. Running back Josh Jacobs is expected back for Green Bay, which could help against a Detroit defense considered below average. The Lions, coming off a bye week, have a defense ranked No. 8 in DVOA, but their offense ranks just 22nd, which is seen as the team’s main weakness. The prediction points to Lions minus-1.5 by kickoff on Sunday.
The Post credited its betting picks to Erich Richter, described as a Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt with what the outlet calls a black belt in MMA betting. Richter has posted strong results in the player prop market over the past two NFL seasons, with a return on investment of 30.15 percent since 2022 while regularly betting on long shots.
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