New York Democrats are losing substantial ground among Jewish voters, according to polling data highlighted Wednesday by CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten, a shift that could reshape several key races in the state.
Appearing alongside co-anchor John Berman, Enten noted that New York has the largest Jewish share of the electorate of any state in the country, making the movement especially consequential. He said recent polling shows Democratic margins with Jewish voters collapsing by more than 35 points since 2022, affecting both the governor’s race and the generic U.S. House ballot.
In the governor’s race, Enten said Democrats currently hold just a 13-point lead among Jewish voters. That marks a steep drop from Gov. Kathy Hochul’s 51-point advantage with the group in 2022 and Andrew Cuomo’s 55-point lead in 2018.
“We’re talking about a swing here … of 38 points downward towards the Republicans when it comes to Jewish voters,” Enten said.
The generic House ballot shows a comparable trend, with the Democratic lead among Jewish voters falling from 49 points in 2022 to 13 points this year.
“Their lead is absolutely tumbled into the Hudson River among Jewish voters,” Enten said.
Asked by Berman what is driving the change, Enten pointed to New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist whose stances on Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Enten said, conflict with the views of many Jewish New Yorkers. He put Mamdani’s net favorability among Jewish voters at minus 23 — about 31 points below his standing with New York’s electorate overall.
A Siena University poll conducted in September found a similar pattern. Among Jewish voters, Republican Bruce Blakeman led Hochul 46% to 43% in the governor’s race, even though Hochul held a nine-point lead statewide. Jewish voters also favored Blakeman over Hochul on handling “undocumented immigrants,” 48% to 43%, and viewed Mamdani unfavorably by a margin of 64% to 33%.
The findings come after Mamdani’s election as New York City mayor last November, when exit polling showed he won roughly a third of the city’s Jewish vote. Cuomo, who ran as an independent in that race, carried about 63% of Jewish voters.
Implications for a Hudson Valley House Seat
Enten also pointed to New York’s 17th Congressional District, currently held by Rep. Mike Lawler, a Republican, in a seat that Kamala Harris won by less than a percentage point in 2024. The prediction market Kalshi currently gives Lawler a 39% chance of holding the heavily Jewish district, Enten said, adding that figure could rise if Jewish voters continue trending the way the polling suggests.
“They may just save Mike Lawler’s seat in Congress for him,” Enten said.
You must be logged in to post a comment Login