With three weeks left before the midterm elections, polling in two closely watched Senate contests — in Texas and Michigan — has tightened, raising questions about Democrats’ hopes for broad gains in the chamber. Betting site Kalshi currently puts the odds of Democrats winning control of the Senate at 61%, but recent developments in both races suggest the outcome is far from settled.
Texas: Talarico’s absence and shifting poll numbers
In Texas, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, 37, is running against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. Talarico recently disappeared from public campaign activity for nearly two weeks, an absence that drew attention given its timing so close to Election Day. Talarico has said he was out sick with the flu.
Paxton’s campaign has run ads highlighting past comments from Talarico, including one in which he said, “I always think of myself as a Christian who hates Christianity.” Talarico has also faced scrutiny over his voting record as a state representative, having voted against bans on biological men competing in women’s sports.
In 2022, Talarico appeared alongside the Texas Humane Legislation Network and spoke of the “existential” need to “reduce our meat consumption” — a position that drew notice in a state closely tied to its cattle industry.
A recent UMass Lowell/YouGov poll shows Talarico and Paxton essentially tied, with 7% of voters still undecided. Some commentators, including Fox News opinion columnist Liz Peek, have drawn comparisons between Talarico’s campaign and that of Beto O’Rourke, the 2018 Democratic Senate candidate who lost to Sen. Ted Cruz after campaigning heavily on gun control measures.
Michigan: El-Sayed’s position on health care draws scrutiny
In Michigan, Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed is facing questions over shifting statements on health care policy. In a 2020 podcast, El-Sayed said Medicare-for-all “does away with the private insurance market.” His campaign website now states: “Medicare for All does not have to ban additional private insurance through unions or employers, although Medicare for All should make those choices redundant and unnecessary.”
During his primary campaign in January, El-Sayed said, “If you like your insurance from your employer or from your union, that can still be there for you.” Michigan is home to roughly half a million union members.
The nonpartisan Urban Institute estimated in 2020 that Sen. Bernie Sanders’ version of Medicare-for-all would cost the federal government $34 trillion over a 10-year period, according to a writer cited by The Bridge, a nonpartisan Michigan news organization.
El-Sayed has also faced questions about his associations and past statements. He has not denounced supporter Hasan Piker, and on Meet the Press he said neither he nor any family members have ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, a group designated a terrorist organization by the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. However, his half-sister, an assistant professor at the University of Chicago, previously stated on social media that her family “has long been” members of the Muslim Brotherhood and that some relatives had been “jailed” over their association with the group.
El-Sayed has also faced questions over past claims of dual citizenship with Egypt. In 2016, he told a Detroit GlobeMed conference, “I carry dual citizenship, and I grew up spending most of my summers in another country.” He made a similar claim on his academic resume, but now denies holding dual citizenship.
In a recent debate, El-Sayed declined to say whether he considers Iran or Israel a bigger threat to the United States when asked directly.
Polling in the Michigan race, against Republican candidate Mike Rogers, has tightened in recent weeks, with several polls showing El-Sayed ahead by only one or two points — within the margin of error.
You must be logged in to post a comment Login