A new poll shows Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff’s lead over Republican challenger Rep. Mike Collins has narrowed to within the margin of error, less than two months before Georgia voters decide one of the most closely watched Senate races in the country.
The survey, conducted by Quantus Insights among 645 likely voters between September 14 and 16, found Ossoff leading Collins 48.2 percent to 44.4 percent. When voters who lean toward a candidate are included, the margin is 49.0 percent to 44.9 percent. Both figures fall within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
That result is considerably tighter than other recent surveys. RealClearPolling’s average of polls in the race currently shows Ossoff ahead by eight points, and rates the contest a toss-up.
Collins spokesman Meyer Siegfried pointed to the new numbers as evidence of shifting momentum. “Jon Ossoff’s toxic far-left record is being exposed, and this race is tightening every day,” Siegfried told Breitbart News. “Georgians are rejecting Jon Ossoff for standing with the radical fringes of his party, and they are backing Mike Collins’s commonsense businessman approach to cutting taxes, lowering costs, and delivering results in the U.S. Senate.”
A Divided Electorate
Quantus described the race as likely to remain competitive, “shaped by sharp differences across gender, race, age, and geography.” Undecided voters make up 6.5 percent of the electorate without leaners and 5.2 percent with them, leaving room for movement on both sides, according to the pollster.
The poll found stark divides by gender and race. Ossoff leads among women, 54 percent to 37 percent, and among Black voters, 82 percent to 10 percent. Collins leads among men, 52 percent to 42 percent, and among white voters, 61 percent to 31 percent.
“These opposing margins illustrate how closely the statewide balance depends on the composition of the electorate and each campaign’s ability to bring its supporters to the polls,” Quantus said in its summary.
Age also splits the race sharply. Ossoff leads 58 percent to 29 percent among voters 18 to 29 and 53 percent to 37 percent among those 30 to 44, though Quantus cautioned that the younger age brackets have smaller sample sizes and should be read “directionally.” The race narrows to 48 percent to 45 percent in Ossoff’s favor among voters 45 to 64. Collins leads voters 65 and older, 55 percent to 41 percent.
Both candidates hold support from more than 90 percent of their own party’s voters. Among independents, Ossoff leads 42 percent to 29 percent, but 26 percent remain undecided — a group Quantus called “especially consequential.”
Both men are viewed more favorably than unfavorably overall, though Ossoff is far better known statewide. Only 2.8 percent of voters said they were unfamiliar with Ossoff, compared with 14.3 percent who said the same of Collins. “More voters have yet to form an opinion of Collins, giving his campaign an opening to introduce him while also leaving those impressions open to persuasion by his opponent,” the poll report noted.
Summing up the state of the race, Quantus wrote: “For now, Ossoff’s advantages among women, Black voters and the Atlanta electorate place him ahead. Collins’ strength among men, white voters, older voters and rural communities keeps the contest competitive. The central question is whether Ossoff can turn his narrow lead into majority support or Collins can close the gap among voters still weighing their choice.”
Stakes for the Senate Majority
The outcome in Georgia could help determine which party controls the Senate for the second half of President Donald Trump’s second term. Ossoff has previously been described as the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent up for reelection this cycle, and is also widely seen as a potential 2028 presidential contender.
Collins currently represents Georgia’s 10th congressional district and owns a trucking company. He has touted early legislative wins, including Trump’s signing of the Laken Riley Act.
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