US officials now believe China is unlikely to invade Taiwan before 2028, even though President Xi Jinping has instructed his military to be ready by 2027 to take the self-governed island by force if necessary. That assessment comes from two current US officials, one former US official and a person familiar with the matter, all of whom spoke on condition of anonymity.
The shift in thinking rests on two main factors: delays in Chinese military readiness caused by an ongoing anti-corruption campaign within the armed forces, and Beijing’s interest in waiting to see the outcome of Taiwan’s 2028 presidential election. Some Chinese officials hope that vote could bring to power a government more open to unification with the mainland.
If Taiwan’s governing Democratic Progressive Party wins a fourth straight term in 2028, particularly if President Lai Ching-te is reelected, the sources said Beijing could become more inclined toward force. “If that happens, I think 2028 becomes pretty sporty,” one US official said.
Lai, who took office two years ago, and the DPP have long emphasized Taiwan’s distinct identity from China, a stance that regularly provokes Beijing. China considers Taiwan an inseparable part of its territory, while Taiwan insists its future is for its own people to decide.
A revised timeline
The assessment marks a notable change from the long-standing view across several US administrations that Xi wanted his forces prepared to potentially seize Taiwan by 2027, the centenary of the People’s Liberation Army’s founding. China has never publicly confirmed such a readiness order, though it has never ruled out using force against Taiwan.
Analysts have generally characterized the 2027 benchmark as a marker of military preparedness rather than a fixed invasion date, though it has nonetheless driven urgency in US policy toward the region for years.
The US intelligence community’s annual threat assessment in March similarly concluded that China did not, at that point, have a plan to invade Taiwan the following year and still preferred to gain control without resorting to force if possible.
In a speech this week, Xi spoke of promoting peaceful development of cross-strait relations in pursuit of “reunification.”
Corruption crackdown slows military buildup
Xi has not abandoned his goal of having the PLA capable of taking Taiwan by force by next year, officials say, but the anti-corruption campaign has hampered progress. Since taking power in 2012, Xi has overseen a sweeping crackdown that has investigated millions of officials across the party, government and military.
The military has increasingly come under scrutiny in recent years. A series of investigations and expulsions has left only two active officials — including Xi himself as chair — on what was formerly a seven-member Central Military Commission.
One US official said China’s military exercises last year were smaller and less threatening than in previous years, and while they picked up somewhat this year, Chinese military leaders appear dissatisfied with their level of readiness. The official said Beijing is believed to have drawn lessons from the wars in Ukraine and Iran about the need to strike quickly rather than risk a prolonged conflict.
“There are way too many pieces that aren’t quite in place yet for what would be the most difficult military operation any military has attempted probably since the Allied invasion of Normandy,” the official said.
US election also a factor
Officials offered differing views on how much weight Beijing places on the 2028 US presidential election. Three of the sources said China may want to gauge that outcome as well, especially given growing American reluctance toward military intervention abroad. But one official said Beijing views Democrats and Republicans as largely aligned on Taiwan policy, making the US election “not as decisive a factor… as it might have been 15 years ago.”
President Donald Trump has repeatedly downplayed the chances of a Chinese invasion during his presidency, saying last year that Xi had told him China would not invade while he remained in office. After hosting Xi in Washington last week, Trump said only that Taiwan came up in their talks and that Xi understood his position.
China regards Taiwan as its most important sovereignty issue and has pushed for an end to US arms sales to the island. Since a May trip to Beijing, Trump has held off approving a new $14 billion arms package, calling it a “negotiating chip.” For years, Washington’s strategy has centered on arming Taiwan so it can resist Chinese forces long enough for the US and allies to respond.
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